Scott Horton on Islam OnLine – How Realistic Is Obama’s Iraq Pullout Plan?

Iraq: How Realistic Is Obama’s Pullout Plan?

Guest Scott Horton:

When Obama finally resides in the Whitehouse on the 20th of January, 2009, he will have to face one of his first and major challenges: Iraq. Being a candidate against the war on Iraq, he has vowed to withdraw the American troops from Iraq within 16 months after he is elected president. Now, a few months later, Barack Obama is the President-elect and he is currently shaping up his team. He has recently renewed the pro-war Republican Robert Gates to stay on in the Pentagon.

“Mr. Gates has said that he supports a continued ground operation in Iraq,” the Timesonline.com reported.

With Robert Gates, Obama’s initial promises, and the Security Deal, the US presence in Iraq looks very blurry. What are Obama’s awaiting challenges in Iraq and how will he contribute to shaping both Iraq’s future and sovereignty?

Politics in Depth had the pleasure of hosting Mr. Scott Horton on the 30th of November, at 20:00 Makkah time (17:00 GMT)

Entire Transcript after the Jump …

READ FROM BOTTOM TO TOP ….

Guest Name Scott  Horton—Antiwar.com’s Radio Host
Subject Iraq: How Realistic Is Obama’s Pullout Plan?
Date Sunday,Nov 30 ,2008
Time Makkah
From
… 20:00…To… 21:00
GMT
From
… 17:00…To…18:00
Name
Editor    -
Profession
Question The session has ended. We would like to thank Mr. Scott Horton for taking the time to answer your questions, and all those who participated in the dialogue.

Kind regards,
Politics in Depth Team

Answer .
Name
aka Phil Gruel    -
Profession
Question Quick Question — How many terrorist attacks have there been in America since 11 September 2001? Your analysis?
Answer There have been none. Though there have been many trumped up cases of would-be terrorists in the media, none of them, other than Zacharias Moussoui, had any real connection to al Qaeda or plans for any real attack.

This is mostly due to the fact that al Qaeda was never more than a few hundred people, America is hard to get to if the security forces are doing their job at all, and the fact that Bush has sent hundreds of thousands of men to the Middle East and Central/South Asia to be shot at there – which would seem to save any bin-Ladenites the trouble of coming to America.

However, as long as US combat forces remain on foreign soil, the American people are being put in danger of further suicide attacks.

As Robert A. Pape showed in his book Dying to Win, occupation by foreign combat forces is the only thing which serves to motivate suicide attacks. And as 10 men just proved in Mumbai, there is no security which can stop determined groups of men from committing acts of wide scale violence. What must be fought is the terrorists’ motivation.

The US empire is a moral and practical disaster which does not serve the interests of the vast majority of Americans anyway. So bringing our troops home and protecting Americans from terrorism should be the easy answer.

Name
Abdallah Elshamy    - Egypt
Profession Student
Question Hello Mr Scott ,,

Thanks for the effort you’ve been doing for creating more awareness about the role of the united states in making a whole country get shattered and demolish a whole generation dreams ..

My question Is : Do you think the new american iraqi security pact makes any change to the iraqi people ,, and to those who were affected by the war .. who is to pay them for the damages and losses they’ve earned .. and what role is your organization doing in order to make the victims get back to their normal life ?

Thank you

Answer As far as I know, the SOFA does nothing in the way of reparations to those whose lives have been destroyed in the war.

Antiwar.com opposes the idea of paying reparations only because we don’t want to see paying them out as an excuse to stay (“Look! We painted a school!) and we are leery of the prospect of who would get the money really, and who would be in charge of distributing it.

If there were some way to easily and automatically drop a separate check into every Iraqis hand as our troops left, that would be but a small token of the true debt owed to the people of that land.

Name
Editor    -
Profession
Question What kind of pressures is the US gov. facing from the American troops in Iraq and their families back home regarding a speedy withdrawal?
Answer I would guess not much. Most military families seem to simply “support the mission” no matter what and leave it for the politicians to decide what is the proper use of their son or husband’s position. There are, of course, many exceptions.
Name
Tallulah Bankhead    -
Profession
Question Was it good or bad to get rid of Sodom Hussain?
Answer Bad. Starting a war is always wrong.

(The US should never have supported him in the first place either. Backing dictators is wrong.)

Name
Mustapha    - Morocco
Profession Student
Question Dear Sir,

This whole pullout plan appears to me to no more than political campaign rhetoric. I often tend to listen and trust what US commanders in Iraq say more than what US politicians say. Gen. Petraius told congress this year that “We have major interests” in Iraq. Based on this assumption, it is unlikely that the US will ever withdraw in Iraq, both its combat or non combat troops. Obama will find a way to go back on his promise and keep the troops in Iraq. What is your intake sir on this?

Answer There are certainly many who wish to keep Iraq forever. And then there is the reality that the US simply cannot afford to stay. It may also be the case that the US government has set a trap for themselves in installing the Dawa/ISCI government in power in Baghdad. Ultimately, they don’t need the US to back them because they have the backing of Iran.

Have no hope for Obama, but keep a keen eye on events; he may be forced to live up to his promise after all.

Name
Sally    - Egypt
Profession
Question Hello

Does antiwar.com see Obama as good news for Iraq?

Answer No. Better than McCain, but good? Not by a long shot.
Name
amratidious    -
Profession
Question What do you expect from Al-Sadr and what do you think his reaction will be especially when the referendum will be held?
Answer Much rests on Sadr’s decisions, though the US military is trying to pretend that he has been rendered powerless by his military defeat (or tactical retreat) last spring. Already he has denounced the SOFA agreement and called massive rallies into the streets to protest.

As far as I know, he’s not in any position to directly challenge the Maliki government, but if he calls his group back to war against American forces, things could become much more difficult.

Sadr has tried in the past to form a coalition with Sunni Arabs against the Maliki government. The current administration has worked hard to prevent any such thing (though it might not have worked anyway).

Renewed fighting against the Mahdi Army would also mean the increased danger of war with Iran since the US military like to pretend whenever a Sadrist sets off a bomb that it must have come from Iran. We saw this lie pushed through most of 2007 and the first half of this year. It was the basis of the Kyle-Lieberman amendment in the summer of ’07 pushing for strikes inside Iran.

More war propaganda like that we do not need.

Name
S. Abdulah    -
Profession
Question Why in your point of view is the USA insistently willing to stay more in Iraq despite the huge loss of US lives in the Iraqi quagmire? Are the US benefits so huge to that extent? Is there something special in Iraq that common people don’t see while the White House perfectly does?
Answer I think different people and factions within the US government are motivated to try and stay for a variety of reasons, such as access to Iraqi oil (so that US companies are doing the skimming), keeping the largest Arab country occupied so that Israel will not have to deal with the consequences of the war their government helped lie us into, corrupt businessmen want to keep their weapons contracts from being canceled, various generals and bureaucrats who’ve been empowered by the war want to keep their new, better, positions, and frankly, I think they’re worried about what an Iraq dominated by the Supreme Islamic Council and Dawa Party will look like when they’re gone.

To be clear: The benefits to the US are non-existent. If there is any such thing as a single “national interest,” this is most certainly not serving it. Only those who work for the national security state as government employees and private contractors, oil company executives and think tank wienies benefit at the expense of the people of Iraq and the United States.

Name
Jane Paul    - United Arab Emirates
Profession
Question Hi Mr. Scott,

If Obama is really the ‘Change’ how is Gates renewal in the Pentagon help this concept?

Answer Obama is not much of a change. That is why he’s keeping Gates.

If we try to be optimistic, we could hope that he only kept Gates in order to keep a tough-guy Republican face on his perceived wimpy plan to withdraw so that it would be easier politically here.

Also, Gates and Obama are in agreement that they need to escalate the war against the Pashtuns of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Name
A. Abdallah    - Syria
Profession
Question Some US politicians used the term “conditional engagement” in Iraq. what does that mean and how will it affect iraq?
Answer Apparently, “conditional engagement” is supposed to refer to a policy of rewarding(?) the Iraqi government with a continued US military occupation as long as different Iraqi factions are overcoming some of their differences. They are trying to have it both ways. You can bet that if the “Sons of Iraq” and the Badr Corps go back to war, that the US will have to stay then too.
Name
Sara    - United Kingdom
Profession
Question with the security deal being approved by the Iraqi parliament, will that change Obama’s withdrawal plan?
Answer Obama has said he wants all “combat forces” out by the summer of 2010. The just signed SOFA still must be ratified by a referendum this summer to allow them to stay until the end of 2010. Of course, “combat forces” is a deliberately vague term, but on its face, it appears the SOFA, if ratified, will keep US forces there longer than Obama says he intends.
Name
George    -
Profession Teacher
Question It was well known around the world and the Middle East in particular, that the U.S. merely occupied Iraq for personal gains (OIL) does antiwar.com think of that as truth? and will Obama purely withdraw every single U.S. entity from Iraq in 2011 with no desires to keep hold on Iraqi oil?
Answer It could be that the “realist” team surrounding Obama really have given up on the idea of staying, but I wouldn’t bet on it. A lot can happen between now and 2011.
Name
Maged Hassan    - Iraq
Profession Student
Question Attacking neighbouring countries from Iraqi land was made illegal in the security deal, will obama be respecting this? or is it just going to tempting to attack Iran, syria..etc?
Answer There will be great pressure on Obama from some factions to spread the war, though I think he is less likely to start a war with Iran.

As far as the law, when has that ever stopped the US government from doing anything?

Name
Muhammed abdelatif    -
Profession
Question The US (Bush first and now Obama gradually) says that they dont want to withraw from Iraq because they are concerned with Iraq’s ability to keep security. since when and the US cares for other countries especially muslim countries, or is it just a cover?
Answer Many in the US government would like to stay in Iraq forever, but it seems possible that at this point, recognizing that they have to leave, the Obama team would like for the Maliki government to last and for relative calm to prevail as they withdraw. Though 2011 is still a long way away.
Name
Editor    -
Profession
Question Dear visitors,

The session has just started. Please, send your questions.

After the session ends, you can view the whole dialogue through the Recent Sessions, or the archive.

Best,
Politics in Depth Team

Answer .


Read dialogue here

About Scott Horton

Scott Horton He is an assistant editor at Antiwar.com and also hosts Antiwar Radio, a daily show tackling foreign policy issues for Antiwar.com

In 2004, he was the foreign policy advisor to Libertarian Party presidential candidate Michael Badnarik.

He won the Austin Chronicle’s ‘Best of Austin’ award for his coverage of the Iraqi war, in October 2007.

IslamonLine.net